Variation of Dynamical Parameters with Upper Tropospheric Potential Vorticity in Tropical Cyclone over the North Indian Ocean Using WRF Model

Source:
By:A.H.M. Fazla Rabbi, Ishtiaque M. Syed, Md. Abdullah Elias Akhter, M A K Mallik

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v6i3.5717

Abstract:

Meteorologists are experiencing many challenges in the reliable forecasting of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones (TC). Uses of the potential vorticity (PV) technique will enrich the current forecasting system. The use of PV analysis of TC intensification over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) is rare. In this study, the authors analyze the behaviour of upper-level PV with dynamic parameters of TCs over NIO. The authors used NCEP FNL reanalysis 1 × 1 degree data as input in WRF model version 4.0.3 with one-way nesting between the parent and child domains. The authors used a coupling of the Kain-Fritsch (new Eta) scheme and the WSM 6-class graupel scheme as cumulus and microphysics options to run the model. The authors found that at least one potential vorticity unit (PVU) (1 PVU = 10–6 m2 s –1KKg–1) upper PV is required to maintain the intensification of TC. Larger upper PV accelerates the fall of central pressure. The high value of upper PV yields the intensification of TC. The wind shear and upper PV exhibited almost identical temporal evolution. Upper PV cannot intensify the TCs at negative wind shear and shear above the threshold value of 12 ms–1. The upper PV and geopotential heights of 500 hPa change mutually in opposite trends. The upper PV calculated by the model is comparable to that of ECMWF results. Therefore, the findings of this study are admissible.

References:

[1] Molinari, J., Skubis, S., Vollaro, D., et al., 1998. Potential vorticity analysis of tropical cyclone intensification. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 55(16), 2632-2644. [2] Martinez, J., Bell, M.M., Rogers, R.F., et al., 2019. Axisymmetric potential vorticity evolution of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 76(7), 2043-2063. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0373.1 [3] Schubert, W.H., Slocum, C.J., Taft, R.K., 2016. Forced, balanced model of tropical cyclone intensification. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. 94(2), 119-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-007 [4] Wu, C.C., Emanuel, K.A., 1995. Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement. Part II: Tropical storm Ana (1991) and Hurricane Andrew (1992). Monthly Weather Review. 123(1), 93-109. [5] Schubert, W.H., Montgomery, M.T., Taft, R.K., et al., 1999. Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 56(9), 1197-1223. [6] Miglietta, M.M., Cerrai, D., Laviola, S., et al., 2017. Potential vorticity patterns in Mediterranean “hurricanes”. Geophysical Research Letters. 44(5), 2537-2545. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072670 [7] Wu, C.C., Wu, S.N., Wei, H.H., et al., 2016. The role of convective heating in tropical cyclone eyewall ring evolution. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 73(1), 319-330. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0085.1 [8] Hausman, S.A., Ooyama, K.V., Schubert, W.H., 2006. Potential vorticity structure of simulated hurricanes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 63(1), 87-108. [9] May, P.T., Holland, G.J., 1999. The role of potential vorticity generation in tropical cyclone rainbands. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 56(9), 1224-1228. [10] Schubert, W.H., Alworth, B.T., 1987. Evolution of potential vorticity in tropical cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 113(475), 147-162. [11] Rozoff, C.M., Kossin, J.P., Schubert, W.H., et al., 2009. Internal control of hurricane intensity variability: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 66(1), 133-147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2717.1 [12] Möller, J.D., Smith, R.K., 1994. The development of potential vorticity in a hurricane‐like vortex. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 120(519), 1255-1265. [13] Yang, B., Wang, Y., Wang, B., 2006. The effect of internally generated inner-core asymmetries on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 64(4), 1165-1188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3971.1 [14] Wang, Y., 2008. How do outer spiral rainbands affect tropical cyclone structure and intensity? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 66(5), 1250-1273. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2737.1 [15] Deng, D., Davidson, N.E., Hu, L., et al., 2017. Potential vorticity perspective of vortex structure changes of tropical cyclone Bilis (2006) during a heavy rain event following landfall. Monthly Weather Review. 145(5), 1875-1895. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0276.1 [16] Judt, F., Chen, S.S., 2010. Convectively generated potential vorticity in rainbands and formation of the secondary eyewall in hurricane Rita of 2005. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 67(11), 3581-3599. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3471.1 [17] Yau, M.K., Liu, Y., Zhang, D.L., et al., 2004. A multiscale numerical study of hurricane Andrew (1992). Part VI: Small-scale inner-core structures and wind streaks. Monthly Weather Review. 132(6), 1410-1433. [18] Jabbar, M.A.R., Hassan, A.S., 2022. Evaluation of geopotential height at 500 hPa with rainfall events: A case study of Iraq. Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science. 33(4), 1-8. DOI: http://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v33i4.1161 [19] Christidis, N., Stott, P.A., 2015. Changes in the geopotential height at 500 hPa under the influence of external climatic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters. 42(24), 10798-10806. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066669