Quantum Biophysics of the Atmosphere: Factor Analysis of the Annual Dynamics of Maximum, Minimum and Average Temperatures from 1879 to 2017 to Hadley English Temperature Center (Hadcet)
Source: By:Author(s)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v3i1.2489
Abstract:Factor analysis of annual dynamics from 1879 to 2017 was carried out by the method of identification of stable regularities: maximum, minimum and average air temperature of Central England according to HadCET. The sample capacity was 139 rows. In factor analysis, time is excluded, and it acts only as a system-forming factor that ensures the relationship between the three parameters of climate and weather. Therefore, the adequacy of the dynamics models is taken into account in the diagonal cells of the correlation matrix. In addition to time, different lists of objects are possible in factor analysis. The coefficient of correlation variation, that is, a measure of the functional relationship between the parameters of the system (annual weather at the weather station in Central England) is 0.8230 for trends, 0.8603 taking into account the annual dynamics of the four-membered model obtained from the computational capabilities of the software environment CurveExpert-1.40, and 0.9578 for the full up to the error of measurement wavelet analysis of the dynamics of the values of three factors. In all three methods of factor analysis, the meteorological parameter «average Annual temperature» was in the first place as the influencing variable, the «Maximum temperature» was in the second place, and the «Minimum temperature» was in the third place. As the dependent measure in these areas there are three kinds of temperature. The comparison shows that among the binary relations between the three temperatures, the average temperature on the maximum air temperature in the surface layer of the atmosphere has the greatest influence on the correlation coefficient 0.9765. At the same time, all six equations refer to strong connections, so there is a high quantum certainty between the three types of temperature. But when predicting the most meaningful essence showed the maximum temperature.
References:[1] R.J. Millar et al. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 0C. 2017. Nature Geosci.Vol. 10. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031 [2] G. Manley. 1953. The mean temperature of Central England, 1698 to 1952. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol 79, pp 242-261. [3] G. Manley. 1974. Central England Temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol. 100, pp. 389-405. [4] P.M. Mazurkin. Influence of Parameters of Water Regime and Hydrological Changes on the Pasture. Biostat Biometrics Open Acc J. 2018; 6(4): 555695. [5] P.M. Mazurkin. Method of identification. International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference, Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM, 2014, 1(6), pp. 427-434. https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946541076&partnerID=40&md5=72a3fcce31b20f2e63e4f23e9a8a40e3 [6] P.M. Mazurkin. Wave patterns of annual global carbon dynamics. Materials of the International Conference «Research transfer» - Reports in English (part 2). November 28, 2018. Beijing, PRC. P.164-191. [7] P.M. Mazurkin, A.I. Kudryashova. Factor analysis of annual global carbon dynamics. Materials of the International Conference «Research transfer» - Reports in English (part 2). November 28, 2018. Beijing, PRC. P.192-224. [8] P.M. Mazurkin, A. I. Kudryashova. Quantum meteorology: factor analysis of the three-hour measurements of four Meteorological parameters for the years 2012-2018 // American Scientific Journal № (24) / 2019. С.15-28. [9] P.M. Mazurkin, A. I. Kudryashova. Quantum fitopatologia: factor analysis of the three-hour measurements of four meteorological parameters during the vegetation periods 2012-2018 // American Scientific Journal № (24) / 2019. С.28-43. [10] P.M. Mazurkin, A. I. Kudryashova. Quanta of behavior of meteorological parameters on three-hour measurements between December solstices // American Scientific Journal № (24) / 2019. С.43-58. [11] P.M. Mazurkin, A. I. Kudryashova. Quanta of behavior of meteorological parameters on three-hour measurements during the growing season of birch // American Scientific Journal № (24) / 2019. С.59-75. [12] D.E. Parker, T.P. Legg, C.K. Folland. 1992. A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772- 1991. Int. J. Clim., Vol. 12, pp. 317-342. [13] D.E. Parker, E.B. Horton. 2005. Uncertainties in the Central England Temperature series since 1878 and some changes to the maximum and minimum series. International J.Climatology, Vol. 25, pp. 1173-1188. [14] C.A. Polgar, R.B. Primack. Leaf-out phenology of temperatewoody plants: from trees toecosystems // New Phytologist (2011) 191: 926-941. [15] M. Rousi, J. Pusenius/ Variations in phenology and growth of European white birch (BetulaPendula) clones // 2005. Heron Publishing—Victoria, Canada. Tree Physiology 25, 201-210/. [16] Y. Zhang, L. Bielory, P. Georgopoulos. Climate change effect on Betula(birch) and Quercus (oak) pollenseasons in US // Int J Biometeorol. 2014 July; 58(5): 909-919. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0674-7