Adverse Impacts of Climate Change in Maharlou Lake Basin, Iran

Source:
By:Author(s)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/hsme.v2i1.1507

Abstract:

Climate change can alter the status quo of the world as we know today. Water resources may also be influenced by these plausible impacts. The common perception is that these changes may exacerbate the situation of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Middle-East, which are experiencing mild to severe water stress due to limited water availability and growing water demands. In that spirit, this study aims to investigate the possible impacts of climate change on surface water in Maharlou Lake basin, Iran. Reportedly, this basin has already shown some symptoms of the water-related crisis, which highlights the importance of conducting climate change studies in this region. The CansESM2 model was employed to predict the basin’s climatic response under various climate change scenarios. The hydrologic response of the basin was, then, simulated using IHACRES. The results have demonstrated a 4% decrease in average annual rainfall, a 2% increase in average annual temperature, and, finally, a 24% decrease in average annual streamflow of the basin in the (2010-2099) time window. While the results suggest that recent water-related challenges in the basin might have caused by climate change, further in-depth studies are required to reveal the exact reasons

References:

[1]Abushandi, E. & Merkel, B. Modelling rainfall runoff relations using HEC-HMS and IHACRES for a single rain event in an arid region of Jordan. Water Resources Management, 2013, 27(7): 2391-2409. [2]Adhikari, U., Nejadhashemi, A.P., Herman, M.R. & Messina, J.P.. Multiscale assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources in Tanzania. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2016, 22(2): 05016034. [3] Bonnot, T.W., Cox, W.A., Thompson, F.R. & Millspaugh, J.J.. Threat of climate change on a songbird population through its impacts on breeding. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8(8): 718. [4] Brisset, E., Djamali, M., Bard, E., Borschneck, D.,Gandouin, E., Garcia, M., Stevens, L. & Tachikawa, K.. Late Holocene hydrology of Lake Maharlou, southwest Iran, inferred from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses. Journal of Paleolimnology, 2018, 61(1): 1-18. [5] Chylek, P., Li, J., Dubey, M.K., Wang, M. & Lesins, G.. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian earth system model CanESM2. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, , 2011, 11(8): 22893-22907. [6] Cunsolo, A. & Ellis, N.R.. Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8(4): 275. [7] Dijkstra, H.A., Te Raa, L., Schmeits, M., & Gerrits, J.. On the physics of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Ocean Dynamics, 2006, 56(1): 36-50. [8] Gleick, P.H. Water strategies for the next administration. Science, 2016, 354(6312): 555-556. [9] IPCC. “Climate change 2013: The physical science basis.” Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, 2013. [10] Jakeman, A.J. & Hornberger, G.M.. How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model? Water Resources Research, 1993, 29(8): 2637-2649. [11] Lesk, C., Coffel, E., D’Amato, A.W., Dodds, K. & Horton, R.. Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(10): 713. [12] Mishchenko, M.I., Liu, L., Geogdzhayev, I.V., Travis, L.D., Cairns, B., & Lacis, A.A.. Toward unified satellite climatology of aerosol properties: MODIS versus MISR versus AERONET. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer, 2010, 111(4): 540-552. [13] Pielke, R.A., Adegoke, J., Beltrán-Przekurat, A., Hiemstra, C.A., Lin, J., Nair, U.S., Niyogi, D., & Nobis, T.E.. An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall. Tellus: Physical & Chemical Meteorology, 2007, 59(3): 587-601. [14] Ryu, Y., Kim, Y.O., Seo, S.B., & Seo, I.W.. Application of real option analysis for planning under climate change uncertainty: A case study for evaluation of flood mitigation plans in Korea. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018, 23(6): 803-819. [15] Singh, V.P., Khedun, C.P. & Mishra, A.K.. Water, environment, energy, and population growth: Implications for water sustainability under climate change. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2014, 19(4): 667- 673. [16] Sowers, J., Vengosh, A. & Weinthal, E.. Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate Change, 2011, 104(3): 599–627. [17] Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F. & Masui, T.. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change,, 2011, 109(1-2): 5. [18] Wang, Z., Zhong, R., Lai, C., Zeng, Z., Lian, Y., & Bai, X.. Climate change enhances the severity and variability of drought in the Pearl River Basin in South China in the 21st century. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018, 249: 149-162. [19] Zolghadr-Asli, B.. Discussion of “Multiscale Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Tanzania” by Umesh Adhikari, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Matthew R. Herman, and Joseph P. Messina. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2017, 22(8): 07017010. [20] Zolghadr-Asli, B., Bozorg-Haddad, O. Sarzaeim, P., & Chu, X.. Investigating the variability of GCMs’ simulations using time series analysis. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2018a. DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2018.099 [21] Zolghadr-Asli, B., Bozorg-Haddad, O. & Chu, X.. Effects of the uncertainties of climate change on the performance of hydropower systems. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2018b. DOI:10.2166/wcc.2018.120