Numerical Modelling of Waves and Surge from Cyclone Mekunu (May 2018) in the Arabian Sea
Source: By:Author(s)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jasr.v2i4.1709
Abstract:Natural hazards like cyclones cause significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and marine structures and facilities. Numerical modelling of cyclones is carried out for deriving robust design conditions for coastal and marine structures and facilities. Cyclone modelling results are also used for emergency planning and decision-making to estimate potential loss of life, damage to properties and marine facilities and to develop rescue and mitigation measures and plan clean-up operations. Royal HaskoningDHV (RHDHV) has set up regional tidal hydrodynamic and wave transformation models covering the Arabian Sea to address the above issues. Cyclone Mekunu is relatively new (May 2018). A quick literature search by Royal HaskoningDHV has suggested that numerical modelling results of waves and surge on Cyclone Mekunu are hardly available in the public domain. Therefore, this paper has concentrated on this event to illustrate the use of numerical modelling to simulate waves and surge generated by cyclones. The MIKE21 model of DHI was used in the study. Sample results of waves and surge from the modelling study are presented in this paper for illustration purposes. Structural design considerations and cyclone risk reduction measures are also provided. The model could be used to simulate any cyclone generated anywhere within the Arabian Sea. The methodology described in this paper for modelling cyclone waves and surge in the Arabian Sea could also be applied to simulate cyclones at other sites around the world. The paper provides valuable information to the researchers and practitioners of the region on this relatively new event.
References:1)Palmen, E. H., 1948: On the formation and structure of tropical cyclones. Geophysica, Univ. of Helsinki, Vol. 3, 1948, pp. 26-38. 2)Gray, W.M. (1979): "Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation" Meteorology Over Tropical Oceans. D. B. Shaw (Ed.), Roy. Meteor. Soc., James Glaisher House, Grenville Place, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 1BX, pp.155-218. 3)Alder, R. F. (2005). Estimating the benefit of TRMM tropical cyclone data in saving lives. American Meteorological Society, 15th Conference on Applied Climatology, Savannah, GA, 20-24 June 2005. 4)Ubydul Haque, Masahiro Hashizume, Korine N Kolivras, Hans J Overgaard, Bivash Das, and Taro Yamamotoa (2012). Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done? Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2012 Feb 1; 90(2): 150-156, PMCID: PMC3302549, published online 2011 Oct 24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.11.088302 5)CBC (2008). The world's worst natural disasters Calamities of the 20th and 21st centuries CBC News, May 08, 2008. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/the-world-s-worst-natural-disasters-1.743208 6)NOAA (2008). The Worst Natural Disasters by Death Toll. ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/noaa_documents.lib/NOAA_related_docs/death_toll_natural_disasters.pdf 7)DHI (2020a). MIKE21 Flow Model FM User Guide, DK-2970, Hørsholm, Denmark, 2019. 8)DHI (2020b). MIKE21 Spectral Wave Model User Guide, DK-2970, Hørsholm, Denmark, 2019. 9)IMD (2019). India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India. Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110003, India. http://www.imd.gov.in 10)JTWC (2019). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the U.S. Department of Defence Agency, http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC 11)Directorate General of Meteorology (2018). National Report to Panel on Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal And Arabian Sea. Annual Report on Activities in Meteorology in the Sultanate of Oman During the year 2018 by the Directorate General of Meteorology, Public Authority of Civil Aviation, Government of Sultanate of Oman. The 45th Session, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, 23-27 September 2018. 12)Wikipedia (2019b). Cyclone Mekunu. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Mekunu 13)DHI (2020c). MIKE21 Toolbox User Guide, DK-2970, Hørsholm, Denmark, 2019. 14)C-Map (2014). JEPPESEN Commercial Marine, Hovlandsveien 52, Egersund, Postal Code 4370, Norway, 2014, available online at http://www.jeppesen.com/index.jsp 15)Sarker, MA (2015). How hydrodynamic and wave models can be used to simulate the impacts of cyclones, tsunamis and oil spills on coastal developments. International Journal for Port Management (World Port Development), Volume 15, Number 3, March 2015, pages 37-39, England. 16)Sarker, MA and Sleigh, AJ (2015). Cyclone and Tsunami Hazards in the Arabian Sea – A Numerical Modelling Case Study by Royal HaskoningDHV. Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering, Volume 5, Number 5, Sep-Oct 2015, 242-254, DOI: https://doi.org/10.17265/2159-5879/2015.05.003, USA. 17)Sarker, MA (2016). Numerical Modelling of Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea. International Journal for Port Management (World Port Development), Volume 16, Number 4, April 2016, pages 37-40, England. 18)Sarker, MA (2017a). Cyclone Hazards in the Arabian Sea – A Numerical Modelling Case Study of Cyclone Nilofar. Water and Environment Journal of CIWEM, Volume 31, Number 2, pages 284-295, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111_wej.12214, May 2017 19)Sarker, MA (2017b). Numerical Modelling of Major Cyclonic Waves and Surge at Duqm (Oman) since 1945. International Journal for Port Management (World Port Development), Volume 17, Number 5, May 2017, pages 38-40, England. 20)Sarker, MA (2017c). A Review of Numerical Modelling of Cyclones and Tsunamis in the Arabian Sea by Royal HaskoningDHV. International Journal of Hydrology (USA), Volume 1, Issue 3, September 2017, DOI: https://doi.org/10.15406/ijh.2017.01.00014 21)Sarker, MA (2018a). Numerical Modelling of Waves and Surge from Cyclone Chapala (2015) in the Arabian Sea. Ocean Engineering, Volume 158, pages 299-310, April 2018, Elsevier, USA. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.04.014 22)Sarker, MA (2018b). Numerical Modelling of Waves from the 1991 Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh). American Journal of Water Science and Engineering, Volume 4, Number 3, 2018, Pages 66-74, DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajwse.20180403.12, http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/index?journalid=369 23)CNN (2018). Cyclone pounds Yemeni island ahead of landfall on Yemen, Oman coast by Hakim Almasmari and Laura Smith-Spark, CNN, updated 1920 GMT (0320 HKT) May 25, 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/25/middleeast/yemen-oman-cyclone-mekunu-wxc-intl/index.html 24)Weather Underground (2018). Cyclone Mekunu an Increasingly Serious Threat for Oman, Yemen by Bob Henson, May 24, 2018, 6:44 AM EDT, https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cyclone-mekunu-increasingly-serious-threat-oman-yemen 25)EC-JRC (2018). DG ECHO Daily Map of Cyclone Mekunu produced by the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, 28 May 2018. https://www.gdacs.org/contentdata/maps/daily/TC/1000453/ECDM_20180528_TC_MEKUNU_Update.pdf https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/getdailymap/docId/2514