Analysing Delay Impact from Potential Risk Factors on Project Delivery of Oil and Gas Pipeline: A Case Study in Iraq

Source:
By:LAYTH A KRAIDI, Raj Shah, Wilfred Matipa, Fiona Fiona Borthwick

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30564/jcr.v2i2.2863

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present the design and specifications of an integrated Delay Analysis Framework (DAF), which could be used to quantify the delay caused by the Risk Factors (RFs) in Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) projects in a simple and systematic way. The main inputs of the DAF are (i) the potential list of RFs in the projects and their impact levels on the projects and the estimated maximum and minimum duration of each task. Monte Carlo Simulation integrated within @Risk simulator was the key process algorithm that used to quantify the impact of delay caused by the associated RFs. The key output of the DAF is the amount of potential delay caused by RFs in the OGP project. The functionalities of the developed DAF were evaluated using a case study of newly developed OGP project, in the south of Iraq. It is found that the case study project might have delayed by 45 days if neglected the consideration of the RFs associated with the project at the construction stage. The paper concludes that identifying the associated RFs and analysing the potential delay in advance will help in reducing the construction delay and improving the effectiveness of the project delivery by taking suitable risk mitigation measures.

 

 

References:

[1] Shebob, A., Dawood, N., and Shah, R. K. (2012a). “Development of a methodology for analysing and quantifying the impact of delay factors affecting construction projects.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management, 2(3), 17–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/JCEPM.2012.2.3.017 [2] Shebob, A., Dawood, N., Shah, R. K. K., and Xu, Q. (2012b). “Comparative study of delay factors in Libyan and the UK construction industry.” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 19(6), 688–712. DOI 10.1108/09699981211277577 [3] Ruwanpura, J., Ariaratnam, S. T., and El-assaly, A. (2004). “Prediction models for sewer infrastructure utilizing rule-based simulation.” Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 21(3), 169–185. https://doi.org/10.1080/10286600410001694192 [4] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2018a). “Analyzing the critical risk factors in oil and gas pipelines projects regarding the perceptions of the stakeholders.” Creative Construction Conference 2018 - Proceedings, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Ljubljana, Slovenia., 304–311. DOI 10.3311/CCC2018-041 [5] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2019a). “Analyzing the critical risk factors associated with oil and gas pipeline projects in Iraq.” International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 24, 14–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcip.2018.10.010 [6] Abudu, D., and Williams, M. (2015). “GIS-based optimal route selection for oil and gas pipelines in Uganda.” Advances in Computer Science: an International Journal, 4(4), 93–104. [7] Ruqaishi, M., and Bashir, H. A. (2015). “Causes of Delay in Construction Projects in the Oil and Gas Industry in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A Case Study.” Journal of Management in Engineering, 31(3), 05014017. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000248 [8] Sweis, R., Moarefi, A., Amiri, M. H., Moarefi, S., and Saleh, R. (2019). “Causes of delay in Iranian oil and gas projects: a root cause analysis.” International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 13(3), 630–650. DOI 10.1108/IJESM-04-2018-0014 [9] Shah, R. K. (2016). “An Exploration of Causes for Delay and Cost Overruns In Construction Projects: Case Study of Australia, Malaysia & Ghana.” Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management, 2, 41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jacem.v2i0.16097 [10] Prasad, K. V., Vasugi, V., Venkatesan, R., and Nikhil, B. (2019). “Analysis of causes of delay in Indian construction projects and mitigation measures.” Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 24(1), 58–78. DOI 10.1108/JFMPC-04-2018-002 [11] Chiu, B. W. Y., and Lai, J. H. K. (2017). “PROJECT DELAY: KEY ELECTRICAL CONSTRUCTION FACTORS IN HONG KONG.” Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 23(7), 847–857. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2017.1319410 [12] Mpofu, B., Ochieng, E. G., Moobela, C., and Pretorius, A. (2017). “Profiling causative factors leading to construction project delays in the United Arab Emirates.” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(2), 346–376. DOI 10.1108/ECAM-05-2015-0072 [13] Kadry, M., Osman, H., and Georgy, M. (2017). “Causes of Construction Delays in Countries with High Geopolitical Risks.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(2), 04016095. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001222 [14] Fallahnejad, M. H. (2013). “Delay causes in Iran gas pipeline projects.” International Journal of Project Management, 31(1), 136–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.06.003 [15] Rui, Z., Cui, K., Wang, X., Chun, J.-H., Li, Y., Zhang, Z., Lu, J., Chen, G., Zhou, X., and Shirish, P. (2018). “A comprehensive investigation on performance of oil and gas development in Nigeria: Technical and non-technical analyses.” Energy, 158(1 September 2018,), 666–680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.027 [16] E.E.P.A., (Energy East Project Application). (2016). Construction - Component - Specific Information.https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/applications-hearings/view-applications-projects/energy-east/index.html [17] F.T.A., (FracTracker Alliance). (2019). “PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION: STEP BY STEP GUIDE.” Pipeline Construction: Step by Step, https://www.fractracker.org/resources/oil-and-gas-101/pipeline-construction/ . [18] Folga, S. M. (2007). Natural Gas Pipeline Technology Overview. (No. ANL/EVS/TM/08-5). Argonne National Lab.(ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Oak Ridg. https://doi.org/10.2172/925391 [19] Nandagopal, N. S. (2007). Pipeline system- design, construction, maintenance and asset management. IDC TECHNOLOGIES Technology Taining that Works, West Perth, Western AUSTRALIA. [20] Williams Companies. (2019). “Pipeline Construction, Williams.” Pipeline Construction, https://co.williams.com/pipeline-construction/ . [21] Cheng, M., and Lu, Y. (2015). “Developing a risk assessment method for complex pipe jacking construction projects.” Automation in Construction, 58, 48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2015.07.011 [22] Lavasani, S. M., Ramzali, N., Sabzalipour, F., and Akyuz, E. (2015). “Utilisation of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) for quantified risk analysis of leakage in abandoned oil and natural-gas wells.” Ocean Engineering, 108, 729–737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.09.008 [23] Tang, K. H. D., Md. Dawal, S. Z., and Olugu, E. U. (2018). “Generating Safety Performance Scores of Offshore Oil and Gas Platforms in Malaysia.” Proceedings of One Curtin International Postgraduate Conference (OCPC), Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia, 325–331. [24] Akyuz, E., and Celik, E. (2015). “A fuzzy DEMATEL method to evaluate critical operational hazards during gas freeing process in crude oil tankers.” Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 38, 243–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2015.10.006 [25] Guzman Urbina, A., and Aoyama, A. (2017). “Measuring the benefit of investing in pipeline safety using fuzzy risk assessment.” Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 45, 116–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2016.11.018 [26] Lu, L., Liang, W., Zhang, L., Zhang, H., Lu, Z., and Shan, J. (2015). “A comprehensive risk evaluation method for natural gas pipelines by combining a risk matrix with a bow-tie model.” Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 25, 124–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2015.04.029 [27] Peng, X., Yao, D., Liang, G., Yu, J., and He, S. (2016). “Overall reliability analysis on oil/gas pipeline under typical third-party actions based on fragility theory.” Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 34, 993–1003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jngse.2016.07.060 [28] Chan, A. P. C., Chan, D. W. M., and Yeung, J. F. Y. (2009). “Overview of the Application of ‘Fuzzy Techniques’ in Construction Management Research.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(11), 1241–1252. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000099 [29] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2017). “Analysing the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects in Iraq.” In: The 3rd BUiD Doctoral Research Conference 2017 Proceedings . pp. 133-148. (The3rd BUiD Doctoral Research Conference, 13 May 2017 - 13 May 2017, The British University in Dubai). Publisher URL: http://www.buid.ac.ae/BDRC-2017 [30] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2019b). “Analyzing Stakeholders’ Perceptions of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects.” Periodica Polytechnica Architecture. 50(2), pp. 155-162. https://doi.org/10.3311/PPar.13744 [31] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2018b). “An Analysis of the Critical Risk Factors in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects Using a Comprehensive Risk Management Framework.” This paper was presented as a working paper at the ARCOM 34th Conference, 3-5 September., Belfast, UK. http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/archive/2018-Working-... [32] Kraidi, L., Shah, R., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2020). “Using stakeholders’ judgement and fuzzy logic theory to analyze the risk influencing factors in oil and gas pipeline projects: Case study in Iraq, Stage II.” International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcip.2020.100337 [33] Kraidi, L., Shah, S., Matipa, W., and Borthwick, F. (2019c). “Application of Fuzzy Logic Theory on Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects.” ASC 2019 International Conference, 10-13 April, Denver, Colorado, USA. URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10178 [34] Grinstead, C. M., and Snell, J. L. (2012). Introduction to Probability. American Mathematical Society. JOURNAL NAME: International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences, Vol.3 No.1, January 20, 2010. https://www.scirp.org/(S(351jmbntvnsjt1aadkozje))/reference/referencespapers.aspx?referenceid=19511 [35] Rutherford, A. C., Maupin, R. D., and Hemez François M. (2006). “Latin Hypercube Sampling vs. Meta-model Monte Carlo for Propagating Uncertainty Through Transient Dynamics Simulations.” In 24th SEM International Modal Analysis Conference., Gale Academic Onefile, St. Louis, Missouri, United States. [36] Gulf Oil & Gas. (2020a). “Pipe Lines Installations News in Iraq. CPP Wins EPC Oil Export Pipeline at Badra Oilfield. (Source: www.gulfoilandgas.com 8/15/2012, Location: Middle East).” Gulf Oil & Gas. [37] Gulf Oil & Gas. (2020b). “Gazprom Connects Badra Field to Main Iraqi Pipeline. Source: www.gulfoilandgas.com 3/5/2014, Location: Middle East.” Gulf Oil & Gas. [38] World Map. (2014). “Iraq Oil Pipelines Map.” https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/812336851510779657/ [39] Fishburn, P. C. (1984). “Foundations of risk measurement. I. Risk as probable loss.” Management Science, INFORMS, 30(4), 396–406. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.4.396 [40] Alali, B. (2010). “Post-Project Risk Perception and Systems Management Reaction.” OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY. DOI:10.25777/dct0-3w22 [41] Almadhlouh, A. A. (2019). “Risk Management Approaches in Oil and Gas Industry Projects: A Qualitative Study.” Colorado Technical University. [42] Ahmed, A., Kayis, B., and Amornsawadwatana, S. (2007). “A review of techniques for risk management in projects.” Benchmarking: An International Journal, (S. C. L. Koh, ed.), 14(1), 22–36. DOI 10.1108/14635770710730919